Why 2012 is so important to Craig Levein
By Shaughan McGuigan:
While the early months of 2012 will see sixteen of the continents international coaches busily preparing for this summers European Championships, Scotland coach Craig Levein's next few months, although slightly more prosaic, are no less important.
If the last unsuccessful qualifying campaign was his attempt to learn on the job then the push for World Cup qualification, which begins with a double-header against Serbia and Macedonia will probably be Levein's swan song as Scotland coach if it proves as fruitless as the last.
Grouped together with Croatia, Serbia, Belgium, Macedonia and Wales, Levein may feel that the draw has done him few favours with the lower ranked sides but that he has dodged a bullet or two amongst the top seeds. After all as good as Croatia and Serbia are they are not to be feared as much as Spain, Germany or even England.
If the last unsuccessful qualifying campaign was his attempt to learn on the job then the push for World Cup qualification, which begins with a double-header against Serbia and Macedonia will probably be Levein's swan song as Scotland coach if it proves as fruitless as the last.
Grouped together with Croatia, Serbia, Belgium, Macedonia and Wales, Levein may feel that the draw has done him few favours with the lower ranked sides but that he has dodged a bullet or two amongst the top seeds. After all as good as Croatia and Serbia are they are not to be feared as much as Spain, Germany or even England.
It isn't just the opponents that Levein has to worry about. The enforced absence through illness will almost certainly deprive him of his captain, Darren Fletcher while Levein's non-existent relationship with Steven Fletcher means the team is shorn of one its few genuine goal threats. Worryingly, perhaps even childishly, neither of the two men seem willing to make the first move to defuse a situation which has shown neither party in a good light.
Theres one man who wont be crossing Levein's thoughts however and that's because Scotland wont be lining up against him at any point during the campaign. Without him though Scotland's group would be completely different, and success or failure will partly be because of him.
Faroese student Jakup Emil Hansen studies political science in Copenhagen and unusually for the tiny country of the Faroe Islands he is a huge football fan. After the Faroes triumphed over Estonia by two goals to nil last summer he thought what most of us have believed at some time or another, that FIFA's rankings were wrong. What he did next however was unusual and in doing so he altered the Scots progress to Brazil in 2014.
Taking his laptop he sat down and entered all of the Faroes results and added up their points using the system that FIFA uses to determine their rankings. Five hours and many recounts later he had determined that the list was slightly askew, 0.07 points to be precise. A tiny figure which would normally be of little consequence, but as Wales and the Faroes were tied equal in a list that would determine World Cup seedings then it was of significant importance.
Jakup first contacted FIFA but after receiving no response he next wrote to the Faroe Islands FA who strangely also didn't seem to take his claims seriously. Deciding he wasnt willing to let it lie he next contacted all the media outlets on the island although only one journalist, Rolant Wagg Dam was willing to help him with his cause.
Dam presented Faroes coach Brian Kerr with Hansen's findings and after the Irishman lobbied FIFA with the slightly embarrassing information that they'd worked out their own rankings incorrectly the sport's governing body agreed to rectify them.
In a normal month this wouldn't really have made much difference but due to a decision that left most scratching their heads FIFA decided that the World Cup draw would take place before the European championship qualifiers had been finalised. As a result the Faroes leapfrog over Wales coincided with the final seedings for Brazil 2014 and consequently, Wales and not the Faroe Islands were placed in pot 6 to be drawn alongside Scotland.
So has Jakup made Scotland's group harder? Of course he has, but while many in Scotland's media were bemoaning the bad luck to draw the toughest sixth seed, it was seemingly forgotten that the group had suddenly become much more even, a fact that may ultimately prove useful to the Scots.
Considering previous results in Toftir, perhaps avoiding the Faroe Islands is actually to Scotland's advantage. A 1-1 draw in 1999 after Matt Elliott was sent off was then followed up by a fortunate 2-2 draw after being 2 goals down at half time in 2002. If anyone was going to drop points against the islanders then it would probably be Scotland. Now however Scotland find themselves in a group where they have almost as much chance of finishing second top as they do of finishing second bottom.
While most fans believe that a harder group means the chances of qualification are less likely, a more even and cut throat mini league may actually allow Scotland to sneak through while everyone else is busy taking points off of each other. This was almost the case when Scotland came up against Italy, France and the Ukraine in the qualifiers for Euro 2008. Some excellent results combined with the three bigger guns all dropping points against each other almost saw Scotland finish above France in second place. Of course with this being Scotland, those excellent results against France were ultimately undone by defeat in Georgia, but it shows what is achievable, even in a tough group.
Craig Leveins two-year tenure as Scotland coach has not been without its critics. From picking a team without a striker to relying on a goal deep into stoppage time to defeat Liechtenstein, his reign has divided opinion. Are Scotland moving slowly forward or simply remaining stationary? With four qualifiers taking place before the end of the year, the coming months will shed more light on the matter.
Make no doubt about it, if Scotland can qualify for the World Cup then even Levein's biggest doubters will surely be thankful for his efforts. Making their first tournament since 1998 will be a huge task, but with some good performances and a bit of luck it is by no means impossible. Perhaps by the end of it all Scottish fans will have reason not only to praise the coach and squad but also a student from the Faroe Islands. We can but hope.
Add comment
